“There´s no Property Bubble nowadays in Spain ... nor expected to come”. This is the convinced opinion of Gonzalo Bernardos, Barcelona University Teacher and Director of the BU "Real Estate Assessment, Management and Advertising Masters Degree", expressed along the 2019 Current and Future Real Estate Scenario Report, developed by Forcadell, and introduced on these days in Barcelona, where an assessment of the current Real Estate scenario has been reviewed and studied, as well as a forecast for the coming months has been explained.
“The market is currently at the early stages of its expansion phase, actually, it is expected a Real Estate boom in Spain due to the fact that an approximate million Spanish families are believed to enter the market as buyers leaving the long term rent market”. The proffessor said that "it is a core issue to bear in mind that there has been hardly any increase of the Price of the Dwellings in the 2014 – 2018 period”.
In Barcelona, the study aims to a 5% price drop in the price of the housing for sale, while a fall in the long term rental prices of around 3-4% it is as well forecasted. Another 5% drop of the aparment prices in Palma de Mallorca is expected and, in exchange, the market in Madrid will apparently rise around a 4%, prices in the capital seem to start dropping on 2020 though.
Forcadell and Bernardos have justified the Dwellings price drop in Barcelona with arguments such as the reduction of purchasing by the foreign population and "family office", due to the unsteadyness of both the judicial, economic and political framework happened along 2017 last term as as result of the sovereignty process.
Bernardos think that the luxury properties thought and built for foreigner buyers will have a more difficult outcome than in the previous years, undergoing an increase of the demands related to more modest districts or directly at the outskirts, in order to cope with the young population needs.
Analyzing the Housing Price evolution in the most populated province capital cities between 2008 and 2018, there have been increase in nominal terms prices at Palma (25,4%), Madrid (4,7%) and at Barcelona (4,4%).
Should the reduction in Housing Price at Barcelona eventually occurs, that would mean the first decrease happened since the beginning of 2014, and in relation with long term rental, since end of 2013, Bernardos recalled.
Nevertheless, the proffessor has pointed out that, on the other hand, housing prices out of Barcelona, specifically in the metropolitan area, for the flow of the Barcelona population unable to endure the high housing prices directs to those zones.
In terms of rental in the city of Barcelona, Bernardos thinks that rental prices under 1.200 will still have growing demand, in exchange of those more expensive rental price properties which will progressively make difficult to find tennants.